Forecast for 8/9/13 and the weekend an extended for 8/12 to 8/15/13

• TodayScattered showers and thunderstorms before 3pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 3pm and 5pm, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. Southwest wind 10 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
• TonightScattered showers and thunderstorms before 9pm, then isolated showers between 9pm and midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. West wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
• SaturdayPartly sunny, with a high near 86. Northwest wind 6 to 8 mph.
• Saturday NightPartly cloudy, with a low around 66. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
• SundayA chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 84. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
• Sunday NightA chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
• MondayA chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 83. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
• Monday NightA chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
• TuesdayShowers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
• Tuesday NightA chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
• WednesdayA chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
• Wednesday NightPartly cloudy, with a low around 59.
• ThursdayMostly sunny, with a high near 78.

Hazzerdous weather out look for 8/9/13 and extened through 8/15/13

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
900 AM EDT FRI AUG 9 2013

MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050-051-501>504-
WVZ050>053-055-501>506-101100-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-
ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-
ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-
900 AM EDT FRI AUG 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

Updated hurricane Forecast issued

NOAA: Atlantic hurricane season on track to be above-normal

August 8, 2013

Image of Tropical Storm Dorian on July 24, 2013, from NOAA's GOES East satellite.

NOAA issued its updated Atlantic hurricaneseason outlook today saying the season is shaping up to be above normal with the possibility that it could be very active. The season has already produced four named storms, with the peak of the season – mid-August through October – yet to come.

“Our confidence for an above-normal season is still high because the predicted atmospheric and oceanic conditions that are favorable for storm development have materialized,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster atNOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. “Also, two of the four named storms to-date formed in the deep tropical Atlantic, which historically is an indicator of an active season.”

The conditions in place now are similar to those that have produced many active Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995, and include above-average Atlantic sea surface temperatures and a stronger rainy season in West Africa, which produces wind patterns that help turn storm systems there into tropical storms and hurricanes.

The updated outlook calls for a 70 percent chance of an above-normal season. Across the Atlantic Basin for the entire season – June 1 to November 30 – NOAA’s updated seasonal outlook (which includes the activity to date of tropical storms Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dorian) projects a 70 percent chance for each of the following ranges:

• 13 to 19 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including
  • 6 to 9 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which
  • 3 to 5 could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)

These ranges are above the 30-year seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

The updated outlook is similar to the pre-season outlook issued in May, but with a reduced expectation for extreme levels of activity. Motivating this change is a decreased likelihood that La Niña will develop and bring its reduced wind shear that further strengthens the hurricane season. Other factors are the lack of hurricanes through July, more variability in the wind patterns across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and slightly lower hurricane season model predictions. In May, the outlook called for 13-20 named storms, 7-11 hurricanes and 3-6 major hurricanes.

“The peak of the hurricane season is almost upon us and it’s important to remain prepared for hurricanes through November," said Joe Nimmich, FEMA Associate Administrator for Response and Recovery. "Make sure to review your family emergency plan, check that your emergency kit is stocked and consider insurance options. Learn more about how you can prepare for hurricanes at www.ready.gov/hurricanes.”

advancing shararn dust now over southern Cuba

 dust advancing North West ward toward florida and what is now tropical depression Dorian  and i will post a satalite picture of both  Dorian and the saharan dust.  Dorian is expected to merge with  a frontal boundry that is coming off the east coast and maybe be affected by the advancing Saharan dust


Picture's

Animated gif of the  dust comeing off affrica

Saharhan dust reaches Puerto Rico

 last image of the day today 8/2/13 shows the dust boundy near the dominican republic and puerto rico in the dust layer

Picture

New office added to NWS Olney Center

 The New Office is EPHC or Eastern Pacffic Hurricane Center its for the Eastern Pacffic   ast of 140 Degrees W est Longitude  that's the central pacffic hurricane center jurrisdiction.

the one in charge of the EPHC is

Dr Tara Ann Strong
Meteorologist  Tropical coordinator  East Pacffic Hurricane center  both the atlantic and Eastern pacffic hurricane centers work in conjuction with the National hurricane center in miami  just have different reagons to forecast for.

Saharahan dust plume and how it affects tropical development

The saharahan dust  will temporarly supress any lows from forming in the  tropical atlantic ocean  because the air comeing off affica has the dust and  is soo dry it tears appart  the storms as we saw with tropical storm Dorian  last week as it tried to cross the area of dry saharahan air it had a feed from the Equatorial atlantic thats why it survived but it didnt last long after that because it intraine  dry air into the system. and dust. you would think the dust would spawn storm formation  beeing  condensation neculei  but no its the  dry air assoiated with the dust that squashes the storms and doesnt let them form.

Picture 1  IR and Visible to show the plume coming off affrica

Picture 2 enhansed  satlite to show dust plume