tropical actvity

The Atlantic  Hurricane Center is  monitoring two potental areas for tropical cyclone development one in the carribbian   moveing North West toward the yuccan peninsula  and another one coming of affrica and its not expected to survive through the SAL or Saharan Air Layer  unless it does what Tropical storm Dorian did and get moisture feed from the ITCZ and that way it can survive as it crosses stable air  the one in the carribbian bares watching for the gulf coast  any more orginization  and advisories would have to be ineated by the Atlantic Hurricane Center. stay tuned to www.nws.noaa.gov  for uppdates

Very Nice weather

HEY A Touch of Fall is here with Low humidity and temperatures in the 70's  it will be warming up to the 80's  but still well bleow average for this time of  year highs are average in the upper 80's and by next week highs should return to the 80's but still low humidity  a taste of fall is here then middle of next week another cold front comes through and drops the temperature again back to the 70's for highs and some upper 50's for lows in the evening and night time hours.

offices at the weather complex

The Offices at the Olney Maryland Weather complex  and adress

(Example of corrispondence address)
National Weather Service
2145 Weather Service Ave
Rockville Md,20853-2145

Attn  division/Office

Example  of address
National Weather Service
2145 Weather Service Ave
Rockville Md,20853-2145

Attn Weather Forecast Office

Offices in the complex   are listed below

01. Weather Forecast Office Olney
02. Atlantic Hurricane Center
03. Atlantic Storms Prediction Center
04.  East Pacfic Hurricane Center
05.  NWS Satilite Services Division

Note in correspondence  put Attn Weather forecast office or what ever  division its to in that Attention field of the corrispondence. makes it easyer to route the mail to the appropate office.

Email Address is  OlneyNWSFO@aol.com

Snail mail address is

National Weather Service
2145 Weather Service Ave
Rockville, Md 20853-2145

Hazzerdous weather out look SJU

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
630 AM AST TUE AUG 13 2013

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-141100-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
THE NEARSHORE AND OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
630 AM AST TUE AUG 13 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH THE LOCAL EFFECTS AND
DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
TYPICAL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SECTIONS IN THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN PUERTO RICO. SOME OF THOSE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
FLOODING REPORTS WOULD BE APPRECIATED.

SJU Forecast for 8/13/13 to 8/19/13

• TodayScattered showers, with thunderstorms also possible after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. Heat index values as high as 102. East wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
• TonightIsolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 78. East wind 8 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 10%.
• WednesdayIsolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Heat index values as high as 106. East wind 13 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 10%.
• Wednesday NightIsolated showers. Mostly clear, with a low around 80. East wind 11 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
• ThursdayIsolated showers. Sunny, with a high near 91. East northeast wind 10 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
• Thursday NightIsolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 79. East northeast wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
• FridayScattered showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. East wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
• Friday NightIsolated showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 78. East wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
• SaturdayIsolated showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. East wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
• Saturday NightIsolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 78. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
• SundayIsolated showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
• Sunday NightScattered showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 78. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
• MondayScattered showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Forecast for 8/13/13 to 8/19/13

• TodayShowers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly before noon, then showers and thunderstorms likely after noon. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Patchy fog before 10am. High near 85. West wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
• TonightA chance of showers and thunderstorms before 11pm, then a slight chance of showers between 11pm and midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 60. Northwest wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
• WednesdayMostly sunny, with a high near 78. Northwest wind 10 to 14 mph.
• Wednesday NightMostly clear, with a low around 54. Northwest wind 3 to 5 mph.
• ThursdaySunny, with a high near 78. North wind around 6 mph becoming west in the afternoon.
• Thursday NightPartly cloudy, with a low around 60.
• FridayMostly sunny, with a high near 78.
• Friday NightPartly cloudy, with a low around 60.
• SaturdayPartly sunny, with a high near 79.
• Saturday NightMostly cloudy, with a low around 64.
• SundayMostly cloudy, with a high near 79.
• Sunday NightMostly cloudy, with a low around 64.
• MondayA chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 80. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Flash flood watch till 3 pm today

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
136 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013


DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-501-502-VAZ028-031-042-053-054-
WVZ050>053-055-501>506-131345-
/O.NEW.KLWX.FF.A.0010.130813T0536Z-130813T1900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-FREDERICK VA-CLARKE-LOUDOUN-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-
JEFFERSON-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-
EASTERN MINERAL-WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...
WESTMINSTER...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...
FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...WINCHESTER...LEESBURG...FAIRFAX...
ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN...
MOOREFIELD...BAYARD...MOUNT STORM...PETERSBURG...ELK GARDEN...
KEYSER...FORT ASHBY...CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN
136 AM EDT TUE AUG 13 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF MARYLAND...THE DISTRICT OF
  COLUMBIA...VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...INCLUDING
  THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN MARYLAND...ANNE ARUNDEL...CARROLL...
  CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY...EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY...
  FREDERICK MD...HARFORD...HOWARD...MONTGOMERY...NORTHERN
  BALTIMORE...PRINCE GEORGES...SOUTHERN BALTIMORE AND
  WASHINGTON. THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA. IN VIRGINIA...
  ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA...CLARKE...FAIRFAX...
  FREDERICK VA AND LOUDOUN. IN NORTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...
  BERKELEY...EASTERN GRANT...EASTERN MINERAL...EASTERN
  PENDLETON...HAMPSHIRE...HARDY...JEFFERSON...MORGAN...WESTERN
  GRANT...WESTERN MINERAL AND WESTERN PENDLETON.

* THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON

* AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
  VALLEY. THIS AREA OF RAINFALL WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE POTOMAC
  HIGHLAND...REACHING THE BALTIMORE WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREA
  IN TIME FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL
  BE POSSIBLE IN LESS THAN 3 HOURS...LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
  FLASH FLOODING.

* HEAVY RAIN COULD OVERWHELM DRAINAGE SYSTEMS. WATER MAY RISE
  QUICKLY ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY LOW LYING AREAS. LOOK FOR
  POTENTIALLY RAPID RISES ON CREEKS AND STREAMS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

New Satalite Launch

Nasa Is going to Launch a New Weather Satalite its called NOAA 30 NWS 1 also called GOOSE A. GOOSE Geostationary Operational Observeing Satalite Enviromental  Its to accopany the GOES R Launches in 2015 but it will sereve as a interrim till GOES R is operational and in orbit  then it be comes the property of The New  National Weather Service  Satalite  Services Division  Located in North Western Montgomery County  Maryland  its NWSSD National Weather Service's Satalite Devision  and they will take full control of  GOES R and others with the NSDIS in camp springs maryland  there  there are 3 satalite's  GOOSE East  GOOSE Central And GOOSE West  each area overlaps one another so composit images can be compliled.  GOOSE A will launch in later 2013 from Cape Canveral Airforce station on the DELTA V rocket.

 I will post a fact sheet as soon as i can of the GOOSE A satalite


Picture 

Project A.T.H.E.N.A update

The tropics are shifting from a Minus ( dry and dusty and unfavorable winds upper levels of atmosphere  )  catagory dry air and dusty to more  Nutural ( more favorable winds upper levels and more moisture in the atmosphere) meaning more conducive for tropical cyclone formation  and 2 impulses of Energy coming across from the pacfic and that could spawn some showers and storms along the intertropical convergance ITCZ  for all those that are hurricane chasers this means increased acvitity and more storms as they come off africa and make their way across the atlantic they wont get their heads torn off by winds unfavorable to development. so will keep you posted on it. hurricane chasers  be ready for action and those of WASC who are intersted should let your respective   chase leaders know your intersted in chaseing for Project  ATHENA and they will tell you how to get involved with them.

ATHENA = Atmosphere Tornado and Hurricane Experiment of the North Atlantic

   It studies all aspect of weather in the  Atlantic ocean and on the east coast of the United States from winter Storms to Hurricanes and other events like tornadoes and severe thunderstorms its in conjunction with the Storms Prediction Center in Norman Oklahoma and the National Hurricane Center in Miami Fla  along with Weather Forecast Offices up and down the East Coast of the United States from Maine to Key West FL Project ATHENA allowed for the establishment  of the Atlantic Hurricane Center or AHC in Olney and the Atlantic Storms Prediction Center or ASPC  Also in Olney  and the East Pacfic Hurricane Center or EPHC again in Olney  and their Jurisdictions are redfined and for the same area in the eastern pacfic the NHC joins the EPHC in forecasting storms for that area. the AHC joins the NHC in forecasting for the Atlantic. The Atlantic Hurricane Center has a Foward Deployed aircraft To San Juan  Puerto Rico  to extend the range to 45 Degrees  West  longitude.

 that is increased lead time for hurricanes that the  nhc can only see on satlite and Estimate winds and pressure.

airport near NWS office

its Name is Rockville/Gathisburg Airport it has the same set up as San  Juan Puerto Rico's so for now we are useing the SJU's map till a runway map can be drawn up  its runways are 12,000+ Feet long both  runways 08-26  is 12,600 ft  and Runway 10-28 is 12,200 feet  Long and  its the base of operations for  the new NOAA/NWS Air Operations Command  of all weather related flights and hurricane recon missions and taxiway serria extends to the  end of runway 08-26. 

Map

Updating Records

 In this quiet time  we are updating our Records on Skywarn  and Storm chaser's as well  with cell phone numbers and email addresses as well as other things please contact OlneyNWSFO@aol.com with your new information or any changes that is the email for the office and will be checked offen  we appeceate all you do for Skywarn and the Washington area storm chaser's teams we appecate all you do for the advancement and working toward a Weather Ready Nation

thank you all


James
Meteorologist in charge

Hurricane confernce a week long meeting

there is a Hurricane Confrence  beeing heald at  the  Marriot Isla Verde Resort  and i will be  attending along with  Dr Katelynn Miller- Schwartz  she will be presenting from the Atlantic Hurricane Center's point of view and the new East Pacfic Hurricane Center's Dr  Tara Strong will also be there for the Pacfic side and the director of the National hurricane center too will  be there it will be a week i will leave  Kathryn Miller in charge while Savannah and i are gone shes a well qualified Meteorologist so  she will take the helm of  the  office while i am away its only a week i leave  end of the week  weekend and will be back later the next weekend. will let you know how it goes..

 The Meeting is given every 3 to 5 years by the Natonal Weather Service Forecast Office San Juan Puerto Rico and NOAA and the World Meteorlogical Orgnization  or WMO

James

Storms

 There are showers and storms in the area  Doppler radar shows storms up in federick county moveing east to north east at about 10 to 15 mph and could produce winds of 40 to 50 mph not high enough to be classisified as severe  so no severe thunderstorm warning issued for them.

 storm moveing into Montgomery  County Maryland and it looks to be weakening as it goes so maybe some light rain for the areas east of Interstate 270  they are Rockville, Olney, Fulton, Scaggsville, Derwood  and Wheaton. its not very big  so not all areas mentioned will see rain and it looks like  its weekening.

Weather Radio Station is WXA-99  broadcasting  on 162.5575 MHZ


Skywarn not antsipated to be activated today for these storms.


Dr James Miller
Meteorologist in charge NWSFO Olney

wearther for travelers to Puerto Rico active date 8/9/13 to 8/15/13

• TodayScattered showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. East wind around 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
• TonightIsolated showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 75. East wind 10 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
• SaturdayIsolated showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. East northeast wind around 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
• Saturday NightScattered showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 79. East wind 8 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
• SundayScattered showers, with thunderstorms also possible after noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. East wind 9 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
• Sunday NightScattered showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 80. East wind around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
• MondayScattered showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. East wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
• Monday NightIsolated showers. Mostly clear, with a low around 78. East wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 10%.
• TuesdayIsolated showers. Sunny, with a high near 86. East wind 10 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
• Tuesday NightScattered showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 78. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
• WednesdayScattered showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
• Wednesday NightIsolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 77. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
• ThursdayIsolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Forecast for 8/9/13 and the weekend an extended for 8/12 to 8/15/13

• TodayScattered showers and thunderstorms before 3pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm between 3pm and 5pm, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. Southwest wind 10 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
• TonightScattered showers and thunderstorms before 9pm, then isolated showers between 9pm and midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. West wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
• SaturdayPartly sunny, with a high near 86. Northwest wind 6 to 8 mph.
• Saturday NightPartly cloudy, with a low around 66. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.
• SundayA chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 84. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
• Sunday NightA chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
• MondayA chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 83. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
• Monday NightA chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
• TuesdayShowers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
• Tuesday NightA chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
• WednesdayA chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
• Wednesday NightPartly cloudy, with a low around 59.
• ThursdayMostly sunny, with a high near 78.

Hazzerdous weather out look for 8/9/13 and extened through 8/15/13

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
900 AM EDT FRI AUG 9 2013

MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050-051-501>504-
WVZ050>053-055-501>506-101100-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-
ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-
ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-
900 AM EDT FRI AUG 9 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

Updated hurricane Forecast issued

NOAA: Atlantic hurricane season on track to be above-normal

August 8, 2013

Image of Tropical Storm Dorian on July 24, 2013, from NOAA's GOES East satellite.

NOAA issued its updated Atlantic hurricaneseason outlook today saying the season is shaping up to be above normal with the possibility that it could be very active. The season has already produced four named storms, with the peak of the season – mid-August through October – yet to come.

“Our confidence for an above-normal season is still high because the predicted atmospheric and oceanic conditions that are favorable for storm development have materialized,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster atNOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service. “Also, two of the four named storms to-date formed in the deep tropical Atlantic, which historically is an indicator of an active season.”

The conditions in place now are similar to those that have produced many active Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995, and include above-average Atlantic sea surface temperatures and a stronger rainy season in West Africa, which produces wind patterns that help turn storm systems there into tropical storms and hurricanes.

The updated outlook calls for a 70 percent chance of an above-normal season. Across the Atlantic Basin for the entire season – June 1 to November 30 – NOAA’s updated seasonal outlook (which includes the activity to date of tropical storms Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dorian) projects a 70 percent chance for each of the following ranges:

• 13 to 19 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including
  • 6 to 9 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which
  • 3 to 5 could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)

These ranges are above the 30-year seasonal averages of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

The updated outlook is similar to the pre-season outlook issued in May, but with a reduced expectation for extreme levels of activity. Motivating this change is a decreased likelihood that La Niña will develop and bring its reduced wind shear that further strengthens the hurricane season. Other factors are the lack of hurricanes through July, more variability in the wind patterns across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and slightly lower hurricane season model predictions. In May, the outlook called for 13-20 named storms, 7-11 hurricanes and 3-6 major hurricanes.

“The peak of the hurricane season is almost upon us and it’s important to remain prepared for hurricanes through November," said Joe Nimmich, FEMA Associate Administrator for Response and Recovery. "Make sure to review your family emergency plan, check that your emergency kit is stocked and consider insurance options. Learn more about how you can prepare for hurricanes at www.ready.gov/hurricanes.”

advancing shararn dust now over southern Cuba

 dust advancing North West ward toward florida and what is now tropical depression Dorian  and i will post a satalite picture of both  Dorian and the saharan dust.  Dorian is expected to merge with  a frontal boundry that is coming off the east coast and maybe be affected by the advancing Saharan dust


Picture's

Animated gif of the  dust comeing off affrica

Saharhan dust reaches Puerto Rico

 last image of the day today 8/2/13 shows the dust boundy near the dominican republic and puerto rico in the dust layer

Picture

New office added to NWS Olney Center

 The New Office is EPHC or Eastern Pacffic Hurricane Center its for the Eastern Pacffic   ast of 140 Degrees W est Longitude  that's the central pacffic hurricane center jurrisdiction.

the one in charge of the EPHC is

Dr Tara Ann Strong
Meteorologist  Tropical coordinator  East Pacffic Hurricane center  both the atlantic and Eastern pacffic hurricane centers work in conjuction with the National hurricane center in miami  just have different reagons to forecast for.

Saharahan dust plume and how it affects tropical development

The saharahan dust  will temporarly supress any lows from forming in the  tropical atlantic ocean  because the air comeing off affica has the dust and  is soo dry it tears appart  the storms as we saw with tropical storm Dorian  last week as it tried to cross the area of dry saharahan air it had a feed from the Equatorial atlantic thats why it survived but it didnt last long after that because it intraine  dry air into the system. and dust. you would think the dust would spawn storm formation  beeing  condensation neculei  but no its the  dry air assoiated with the dust that squashes the storms and doesnt let them form.

Picture 1  IR and Visible to show the plume coming off affrica

Picture 2 enhansed  satlite to show dust plume